The Satori fund is managed to be an “all-weather” fund. The fund was profitable last year with the S&P down 19% but also this year with the S&P up 17% through 11/13. Despite the S&P being down each of the past 3 months (August, September, October) with a cumulative loss of 8% over that time, the fund has been profitable each of those three months.
Yesterday, the Satori fund had its best return day in over one and half years & beat the S&P which soared 1.9%.
Bullish Goldilocks Outlook through Year-End
In general, we are managing the portfolio on a day by day basis given the volatile daily moves in the stocks (like yesterday) that we expect to continue.
We are in the seasonally strongest 3 months of the year for the stock market which is November through January (avg up 4% over past 50/100 years) with these additional drivers:
We have a barbell strategy with $AMZN and $META of the Magnificent 7 on one end of the barbell…
We are increasingly looking for beaten up names with compelling valuations outside of the Magnificent 7 to drive returns through year-end.
Looking into 2024, we believe Goldilocks will meet the Three bears (not something we are worried about today)
Stock market valuations are high relative to where inflation is. When CPI has historically been between 3-4%, the S&P trailing valuation has been 17.5x versus 21x today.
Dan Niles is founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund, a tech-focused hedge fund.