2023 Q2 Economic Review

7/13/2023

7/13/2023 08:05:09 pm

Last yr you said bottom in july 2023.
Long and shallow recession. - whats the call now?
Still 3000 s&p? What time frame?

Tom lee saying 4825
Mike wilson 3900 by year end. Where are you now?

Neil

7/15/2023 06:41:10 am

Spent over 200 hours analyzing all of your videos/ data over the last 2 years
Slide #6 makes no sense. You need to put more draw-out bubbles next to specific events substantiating both claims. You do a good job of this on other slides in the deck.

In what recession did the S&P bottom post-1970's before the FED stopped raising rates? Never. Almost always the s&p starts to bottom once feds cut rates and rates hit the low point of the cycle - this is true for both post and pre- 1970s. Fed is at its peak rate now or close to it.

Feds normally have to hold the rates here for 3-9 months to slow the economy. Once rates filter thru the economy, they realize it is slowing quickly and they cut the rates. That causes a sell-off in the stock market when even the Feds believe support is necessary to keep the economy from failing.

You called a July 2023 bottom last year, but realistically what will happen is they will hold and around October. - January they will start to drop the rates. This will cause the sell-off in market. Since this is a very telegraphed recession, the market will bottom much faster than in prior so markets may even bottom once market even prices in the first rate cut (instead of when rates are cut to zero) due to the ubiquity of quants & digital speed of information flow nowadays (i.e speed of bank failures this time around).

Dilbert link

7/18/2023 11:29:09 am

I don't know what to think because the stock market keeps going up even while the FED keeps raising rates.