DAN NILES
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Removing $GOOGL as a Top 5 Pick for 2022

7/13/2022

8 Comments

 
We are removing Google from our Top5 Picks for 2022 and recommend investors stay in cash. As a result of their greater market share of the total ad market today, we believe estimates for advertising based internet companies like Google & Facebook are more at risk than is commonly believed. 

In 2021, Google reached $258B in revenues (29% of ad industry rev) while Facebook was $118B (13% of total ad industry rev) with digital ad spending in total have grown from 12% share to 2/3rds share of the total $900B ad market over the past 12 years.

During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, Google revenue was only $24B or 3% of ad industry rev while Facebook at $777M was 0.5% in 2009. Both companies were able to grow during that downturn as the internet was gaining momentum as an advertising medium with only ~12% of ad spending online. 

But both traditional and digital ad spending is likely to get hit over the next 18 months during a recession. During the 2008-09 Great Recession, US ad spending declined by 6% in 2008 and by 18% in 2009. This decline for two consecutive years last occurred in 1940. Digital ad spending, however, was up slightly in 2008 and down only mid-single digits in 2009. I believe history has skewed peoples view of the resiliency of the online ad market. Google in fact saw revenues increase by 31% in 2008 and by 9% in 2009 as the internet economy gained share. The much smaller Facebook saw revenues grow 78% in 2008 and 186% in 2009.

The launch of the iPhone in January of 2007 also helped shift viewing habits online as you could essentially surf the internet from anywhere versus from just your PC. This drove even more ad dollars online despite a recession.

We thought Google should have been able to outperform the overall market even during a down 30-50% decline in the S&P during a recession given their prodigious cash generation, reasonable market valuation and focus on future innovations. However we believe the dollars available to all online ad companies going forward including Google will also be less than we originally thought due to share gains over the near-term at:
1) TikTok (~$4B in revs in 2021 and projected to do $12B in 2022),
2) Amazon ($31B in ad revs in 2021 & up 33% in Q4 as it ramps its focus on their ad business)
3) Apple (~$4B in ad revs and up over 3x in 2021 driven by privacy changes)
4) Netflix (coming before year-end which could be a big drain in ad dollars given they have over 20% of US streaming audience share).

Netflix on the margin tipped it for us with our Google recommendation as some people will switch to a cheaper ad supported tier during a recession. Netflix has 222M global subscribers currently. That is a fair bit of ad inventory that could potentially be added to the market. We have already seen the damage TikTok has caused at Facebook.

Finally, with the world slowly opening up, people are spending time away from their screens as they go engage in leisure & travel activities. This will cut the amount of time consumers are on the internet and reduce monetization opportunities for Google.

In summary, as a result of our belief in 1) an impending recession, 2) online advertising share gains at TikTok, Amazon, and new entrant Netflix, and 3) less time spent by consumers online as they engage in travel & leisure activities, the ad sector (both traditional and online) is an area where we have short positions currently. We think street consensus of 34% revenue growth at Google and 22% at Facebook over the next two years is optimistic to say the least.

At some point in 2023 when the market hits its ultimate bottom, Google will be one of the first names we buy for the long-term given their culture of innovation, solid cash generation and reasonable multiple compared to their long-term growth potential.
8 Comments
Nicholas Reitenbach
7/13/2022 08:53:09 pm

Thanks for your views. Keep me posted.

Reply
Dimitris Pantermalis
7/14/2022 02:13:19 am

Would it be more accurate if you removed all the non-advertising revenues from Google's 2021 revenue of $258B to calculate the ad % market share?

Reply
Raj
7/14/2022 03:46:22 am

Thank you for your (prudent) insights, the most awe-inspiring recommendation being to stay in cash.
As a 72 year old retiree, I regret not going 100% cash early on in the year, but your cautious comments made me act eventually, as my financial situation is already precarious and it is at least necessary to continue to put modest food on the table, pay bills and not lead a daily life filled with worries.
Thank you again, it seems we are seeing a world slowly bure surely spin itself out of control, and with no obvious leader to lead us out of this mayhem, I worry, sadly, more and more Sri Lankas are likely. I pray of course, I am wrong in my last FUD expression.
In addition, it is shocking how hot this summer is turning out to be, and worse days are to come in this beautiful little town in Switzerland, with no rain now for weeks. It hasn't been like this for as long as I can remember.
All the best, and thanks again,

Reply
Ian
7/14/2022 06:52:09 am

Thanks for the valuable insights. Dan has been a clear, articulate voice that has continually demonstrated its value throughout this latest ordeal.

Reply
Jeff
7/15/2022 09:40:24 am

Thanks Dan moved to sidlines when you first talk about it, bought some kweb we’ll see how that works out. I’ll keep an eye on google going into next yr. Thanks again

Reply
J. Lee
7/16/2022 12:28:27 am

Thank you, DAN., your BIG Fan from east asia.

Reply
Dilbert Schmoe
7/22/2022 07:02:44 pm

Dan,

You made a great call at the beginning of the year by warning investors about The Fed. The other thing that stuck with me is your comment about how the past thirteen (13) years have *not* been normal. This could be a long bear market. Thank you.

Reply
Ashok Masand
7/29/2022 11:05:19 am

Dan,

Great calls this year. Congrats!

You turned bearish on the tech big caps sometime ago and covered your shorts just before earnings this month, while staying net short. You also mentioned buying INTC lately. What is your reaction and price movements regarding AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and INTC after earnings? Very interested in your thoughts.
Thx.

Reply



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    Dan Niles is founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund, a tech-focused hedge fund. ​

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